Construction of scenarios in models of financial administration. Application of decisions theory in crisis situations

the case of Misiones water services S.A

Authors

  • Roberto Guidek Universidad Nacional de Misiones. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Administración. Misiones, Argentina.
  • Diego Keller Universidad Nacional de Misiones. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Administración. Misiones, Argentina.
  • Nicolas Simon Universidad Nacional de Misiones. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Administración. Misiones, Argentina.
  • Esteban Carlino Universidad Nacional de Misiones. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Administración. Misiones, Argentina.
  • José M. De Luca Universidad Nacional de Misiones. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Administración. Misiones, Argentina.
  • Cintya Pona Universidad Nacional de Misiones. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Administración.
  • Mariela Rondan Universidad Nacional de Misiones. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Administración. Misiones, Argentina.

Keywords:

Decision tree; Scenarios; Strategic planning; Regression; Simulation.; Time series; Multivariate statistics

Abstract

The crisis situation faced by public services in the post-convertibility era, gave way to the opportunity to apply some Decision Science tools to the renegotiation of the committed obligations with the main involved actors. At first a training course, was held, which was of vital importance, due to the knowledge and clarity of achieved ideas, referred to the existing problems.  It was of exceptional help to the top management, as to the crisis in which they were in. After discussing facts, alternatives and actions to be carried out, in the enterprise, it was decided to do a mathematical model, which backed by tools such as Decision Trees, Montecarlo Simulation and Multivariate Statistics would render very important information, which would help the negotiations being carried out. This paper tries to explain the most important steps accomplished, preserving the enterprise's confidentiality, the same the software owner's property rights.

Published

2004-12-14

How to Cite

Guidek, R., Keller, D., Simon, N., Carlino, E., De Luca, J. M., Pona, C., & Rondan, M. (2004). Construction of scenarios in models of financial administration. Application of decisions theory in crisis situations: the case of Misiones water services S.A. Scientific Journal Visión De Futuro, 3(1). Retrieved from https://revistacientifica.fce.unam.edu.ar/index.php/visiondefuturo/article/view/596

Issue

Section

Original Articles

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