The tourist demand of the hotel chain. Time series for a forecast model

Authors

Keywords:

Tourist demand; Efficacy; Efficiency; Time series.

Abstract

In an increasingly uncertain world where world dynamics accelerates the way of managing processes in any sector, the forecast of tourist demand becomes very important. In this sense, the present research aims to forecast the tourist demand of the Cuban Hotel Chain of Pinar del Río, Cuba, until December 2019, through the use of time series techniques, which facilitate planning and decision-making. in this sector and in this way work towards the achievement of an integration in the productive chains, considering that tourism is one of the socioeconomic activities that activates many other sectors of production and services, as well as predicting the behavior of tourism. For this, the quantitative research method was used as the guiding method, based on the Box - Jenkins methodology and the Holt - Winters exponential smoothing method. It is also possible to characterize tourism management taking into consideration two indicators: cost per weight and average income per tourist, referring to efficiency and effectiveness respectively. In addition, a multivariate analysis of time series was carried out that made it possible to characterize the tourist activity in four fundamental stages in the hotel chain taken as the object of study.

Author Biographies

Reinier Fernández López, University of Pinar del Río Hermanos

Industrial Engineer from the University of Pinar del Río "Hermanos Saíz Montes de Oca" / Upr, Cuba. He is a Master in Industrial Engineering and Systems from the Technological University of Havana "José Antonio Echeverría" / Cujae, Cuba, in 2019. Assistant Professor and researcher of the Department of Mathematics of the Faculty of Technical Sciences at the Upr in the specialty of Applied Mathematics . He is head of the innovation project "Tools for measuring the sustainability and competitiveness of tourist destinations in Pinar del Río". Research line: Applied Mathematics to Tourism Management. ORCID #: 0000-0003-1974-9209

José Alberto Vilalta Alonso, Technological University of Havana

Industrial Engineer. Master in Quality Assurance. He is a Dr. in Technical Sciences from the Technological University of Havana "José Antonio Echeverría" / Cujae, Cuba, in 2008. Professor of the Department of Industrial Engineering of the Faculty of Industrial Engineering of La Cujae. Coordinator of the doctoral program in Industrial Engineering and Systems. He is president of the National Industrial Engineering Career Commission of the Republic of Cuba. Research line: Statistics and Quality Management. ORCID #: 0000-0001-7505-8918

Arely Quintero Silverio, University of Pinar del Río Hermanos

Degree in Economics. He is a Dr. in Technical Sciences from the University of Pinar del Río "Hermanos Saíz Montes de Oca" / Upr, Cuba, in 2001. Professor of the Department of Mathematics of the Faculty of Technical Sciences of the Upr. Postgraduate Methodologist at Upr. Member of the Permanent Tribunal for the granting of the Scientific Degree of Doctor of Technical Sciences (Geology). Research line: Mathematics Applied to Geological Processes. ORCID #: 0000-0003-2951-8957

Ledy Raúl Díaz González, University of Pinar del Río Hermanos

Telecommunications and Electronics Engineer. Master in New Information Technology and Communications from the University of Pinar del Río "Hermanos Saíz Montes de Oca" / Upr, Cuba, in 2007. Assistant Professor of the Department of Mathematics of the Faculty of Technical Sciences of the Upr. Head of the Department of Mathematics of the Faculty of Technical Sciences of the Upr. Research line: Applied Mathematics. ORCID #: 0000-0002-8923-764X

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Published

2020-12-30

How to Cite

Fernández López, R., Vilalta Alonso, J. A. ., Quintero Silverio, A. ., & Díaz González, L. R. . (2020). The tourist demand of the hotel chain. Time series for a forecast model. Scientific Journal Visión De Futuro, 25(1). Retrieved from https://revistacientifica.fce.unam.edu.ar/index.php/visiondefuturo/article/view/453

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